Remember Tomorrow: Elena Yamamoto vs Wan Brothers - Face Off Scene 2

Still continuing to use concordances, but now I'm mixing that up with using a Bayesian formula to come up with the odds of some things given facts established in the fiction (or made up on the spot, as needed). Bayes comes mostly into play when I have some assumptions about how the flow should go but don't want to fiat things, or when I've constructed a potential flow out of concordances I've collected. 

I've asked a few questions about using Bayesian inference as an Oracle of sorts here and here. I'm still not sure I'm doing Bayesian inference correctly, but at least it looks like I'm getting consistent numbers to roll against. Feel free to chime in about that if you have any ideas.

Actual play without notes is in the post below.

The link to Excel with notes: Elena Yamamoto vs Wan Brothers - Face Off Scene 2

Turn type (GM:/Player:)	Actual play
GM:	Where are you?
Player:	I made my way to Lonny Zone's, where my last clue leads me.
GM:	What day and time is it?
Player:	It's midnight on a Wednesday. By the way, I had been hiding in this safe house I built to hide in during times like these. Let's say about a week.
GM:	Cool. Thanks for letting me know. (Scribbles that Elena has a safe house.) Maybe luckily for you, the clientele is light tonight. There seem to be a few scattered gaijin sailors on R&R, along with some salarymen .
Player:	I begin by casually checking for flashes of Wan Brothers tattoos.
GM:	Given Elena has jacked senses, you do catch some flashes of Wan Brothers tatoos on at least one guy who didn't hide it well. Plus, your instincts just kind of raise alarms inside you.
Player:	I go to the bartender and order a Guiness while I check out the scene.
GM:	So you're playing it cool, not panicking. I like it. You can sense that the thugs have noticed you, but they are also trying to play it cool like you. The rest of the clientele seems happily oblivious. The bartender is a tattooed beauty. She seems to have other worries in her mind as she pours you a perfect glass of Guiness.
Player:	I lok around, trying to look relaxed and real friendly. I tell the bartender a friend of mine was supposed to meet me here with some of his coworkers from the bank. Seems like he's late.
GM:	She seems a little confused, as if she wasn't paying attention, but then says: "Oh, sorry, hon. Maybe he's with that group there from Singapore Bank. They're semi-regulars here."
Player:	"Thanks. Now we are gonna party," I say ominously.
GM:	She seems to be processing your tone when you hear one of the drunk bankers blurt something out about a Russian engineer, before one of his colleagues rudely tells him to shut up.
Player:	That all but forces me to look.
GM:	You and the guy who told his friend to shut up just happen to look at each other in that instant.
Player:	I maintain eye contact and walk over. When I'm close enough, I tell him: "I've been looking for a man like you."
GM:	He looks you over and grabs your hand. "I don't think I've seen you before. You new to this area?" Maybe he's assuming you're a working girl.
Player:	She resists a sudden urge to look at him with disgust. "Yes. My usual hangout is the public library, but it's dead at this hour."
GM:	They all find that really amusing and begin to laugh at your quip. Suddenly, out of the corner of your eye, you notice one of the thugs is filmed with sweat. You notice he has an implant scar much like yours: Jacked Senses.
Player:	I have a shuriken made of German steel tucked in my sleeve. I flash snake like eyes at him as he is my first target. I want as few casualties as possible with the bankers.
GM:	I think it's time for a conflict. The only pCon that makes sense is still "Injured", so I'm aiming for that.
Player:	I'm aiming to take out the thugs before they take me out and save the bankers. Roll(3d10)+0: 9,6,9,+0 NO successes.
GM:	Uh oh. Do you want to burn a pCon to re-roll all your dice?
Player:	I burn Hardened to re-roll: Roll(1d10)+0: 1,6, 5,+0 Two successes.
GM:	What do you narrate as part of losing Hardened?
Player:	It's hard to maintain a sense of utter calm when you've been betrayed by your employer.
GM:	My turn to roll: Roll(3d10)+0: 10,9,7,+0 And I fail utterly...again.
Player:	I increase R & W parameters to 6. Now I'm 6/6/5 R/W/A.
GM:	OK, since I'm the loser, I get to narrate what happened again: The shuriken rotates through the air and lodges in "Jacked Senses" thug's forehead. His whole body goes limp and he drops like a sack of rocks. Everything else is a fantastic tangle of fists, kicks, headbutts and slashes from your razored hands. Quickly you make short work of the thugs without any casualties. You hear the banker comment, astonished: "They look like hammered shit now..."
Player:	I look at him blankly and say: "I need you to tell me what you know about this Russian engineer deal."