Still continuing to use concordances, but now I'm mixing that up with using a Bayesian formula to come up with the odds of some things given facts established in the fiction (or made up on the spot, as needed). Bayes comes mostly into play when I have some assumptions about how the flow should go but don't want to fiat things, or when I've constructed a potential flow out of concordances I've collected.
I've asked a few questions about using Bayesian inference as an Oracle of sorts here and here. I'm still not sure I'm doing Bayesian inference correctly, but at least it looks like I'm getting consistent numbers to roll against. Feel free to chime in about that if you have any ideas.
Actual play without notes is in the post below.
The link to Excel with notes: Elena Yamamoto vs Wan Brothers - Face Off Scene 2